Small stocks of Dalal Street grappled with turbulent times in 2022 as high volatility and higher interest rate regime sapped investors' appetite for these scrips but the horizon ahead seems less cloudy for the New Year. While the 30-share Sensex scaled multiple record peaks with bluechips glittering, small stocks underperformed and the BSE smallcap index declined more than 3 per cent this year. In comparison, the BSE Sensex climbed 2,673.61 points or 4.58 per cent till December 27.
Shares of Tata Group companies on Thursday rose up to 10 per cent, with Tata Chemicals and Tata Teleservices among the major gainers. Tata Sons Chairman Emeritus Ratan Tata, who played a key role in transforming the group into a global conglomerate, passed away late on Wednesday. He was 86. "Investors can pay tribute to Ratan Tata and the great corporate empire he built by buying stocks like TCS, Tata Motors, Tata Steel, Tata Consumer and Indian Hotels.
'Expect FPIs to continue selling for several months until the rupee stabilises.'
Analysts are warning of growing risks to the market's sustained momentum, and even to the possibility of consolidation at current levels. Domestically, markets are grappling with several challenges, including a slowing economy, as indicated by the latest GDP data for the July-September (Q2) quarter of 2024-25 (FY25), sticky inflation, fluctuations in the rupee, waning consumption, and high interest rates.
Billionaire Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries Ltd has lost its position as the Indian stock market's most influential individual company to IT major Infosys, following a recent plunge in its share price.
Stock markets will focus on global trends for further direction in this holiday-shortened week as the earnings season is largely over, analysts said. Trade experts expect the key benchmark indices to move sideways as investors are trying to decode the impact of rising inflation on foreign portfolio investments. Inflation data released by the US and China last week have fanned fears of earlier than expected rate hike and boosted US bond yields.
Trump's tariffs, falling shrimp prices, and fears of additional US levies, spark a crisis in Andhra Pradesh's politically vital aquaculture sector.
State Bank of India (SBI), the largest lender in the country, has launched a share sale to institutional investors to raise upto Rs 25,000 crore, the biggest qualified institutional placement (QIP) so far by an Indian firm, and has set a floor price of Rs 811.05, which is at a 2.5 per cent discount on Wednesday's closing price.
'Youngsters in India look up to the West as if it is the biggest accomplishment they need in life. It breaks my heart.'
The Adani group stocks continued to remain under pressure on Friday, falling up to 20 per cent in morning trade, after the US-based investment research firm Hindenburg Research made damaging allegations. Shares of Adani Total Gas plummeted 19.65 per cent, Adani Transmission tumbled 19 per cent, Adani Green Energy plunged 15.50 per cent and Adani Enterprises tanked 6.19 per cent on the BSE. Also, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone fell 5.31 per cent, Adani Wilmar dipped 5 per cent and Adani Power declined 4.99 per cent.
The other prominent gainers were Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Wipro, State Bank of India and Larsen & Toubro. Bajaj Finserv, Power Grid, UltraTech Cement and HDFC Bank were among the laggards.
India needs to be technologically and militarily prepared to defend itself from both Pakistan and China, alerts Ramesh Menon.
From the 30-share Sensex firms, Tata Motors, Bajaj Finance, Eternal, Adani Ports, Tata Steel, Titan, Mahindra & Mahindra and Power Grid were among the gainers. Asian Paints, Sun Pharma, ITC, Nestle, Reliance Industries and HCL Tech were among the laggards.
As many as 267 of 453 companies from the BSE500 index are trading above their consensus price targets, according to the data compiled by Bloomberg. Not all companies in the BSE500 index are tracked by analysts.
Day trading is definitely risky if you are not completely aware of the markets. It could have disastrous results. Investing and holding is always a better method, says market expert Pranav Sanghavi.
Have a query related to Indian stock markets and investing? Every week our stock market expert Narendar Lokwani will answer your stock queries. This is the first set of queries sent by readers.
They expressed concern on taxation issues, the high fiscal and current account deficits, and sought removal of capital gains tax.
"We go into 2008 with economic data still robust, the government plan of infrastructure spending of about $400 billion on track, but on the backdrop of developments in the international markets and high valuations, we expect the Indian market to see high volatility," Fidelity International India fund manager Sandeep Kothari said.
Small and midcaps are leading the charge in the latest market rebound. Since November 21, when the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty hit their recent lows and slipped into correction territory, the Nifty Smallcap 100 index has risen by 8 per cent, while the Nifty Midcap 100 has gained 5.7 per cent. Meanwhile, the Nifty 50 index has risen by 4.7 per cent during this period.
Shares of Hyundai Motor India Ltd, the Indian arm of South Korean automaker Hyundai, on Tuesday made a muted market debut and further fell by nearly 6 per cent against the issue price of Rs 1,960. The stock listed at Rs 1,931, reflecting a decline of 1.47 per cent from the issue price on the BSE. Later, the stock made some recovery and hit a high of Rs 1,968.80, up 0.44 per cent.
The share of equity and investment funds in the total financial wealth of households increased by more than 50% between 2011-2012 and 2022-2023.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has approved a proposal from a startup to test fractional shares in its innovation sandbox, marking a potential shift in the Indian equity landscape. This represents a change in stance from 2021, when Sebi rejected a similar proposal in the regulatory sandbox, primarily due to concerns over the custody of fractional shares.
'It won't be a V-shaped recovery. It'll be consolidation.' 'Investors might exit during that grind. It'll be painful.'
'My advice: Don't mark your portfolio to market every day. Focus on survival.'
After heavy selling in the past two months, foreign investors have staged a strong comeback to Indian equities with a net investment of Rs 24,454 crore in the first week of December amid stabilising global conditions and expectations of potential US Federal Reserve rate cuts. This revival follows significant outflows in the preceding months, with foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) pulling out a net Rs 21,612 crore in November and a massive Rs 94,017 crore in October - the worst monthly outflow on record.
'...you evaluate three key factors before committing your money.'
The crisis may not be as visible this time, but the stakes are just as high, points out Rajeswari Sengupta.
Indian stocks have emerged as the best performers among the BRIC nations as well as developed markets across the globe, giving investors highest return of nearly 114 per cent in the just concluded 2009-10 fiscal.
Stock markets will be largely driven by global trends in the absence of any major domestic triggers this week, say analysts. The trading activity of foreign investors, global crude oil prices and rupee-dollar movement will also influence market movement, they said. "Anticipating a period of consolidation in the absence of clear global cues, the market's trajectory will likely hinge on the movement of the US bond yields, the dollar index, and crude oil prices, as well as institutional flows.
'Unless we consistently show up with the right cars, at the right time, priced fairly, we risk becoming irrelevant very quickly.'
From the Sensex firms, Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Titan, HDFC Bank, IndusInd Bank, Infosys and Kotak Mahindra Bank were among the biggest laggards. On the other hand, Adani Ports, Mahindra & Mahindra, Power Grid, Eternal and Hindustan Unilever were among the gainers.
India and the US desire to give preferential market access to each other's businesses and teams of both the countries are working together on the proposed bilateral trade agreement, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has said. In February, US President Donald J Trump and Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi announced plans to negotiate the first tranche or phase of a mutually beneficial, multi-sector Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) by fall (September-October) of 2025.
TIll the dollar continues to weaken the IT pack may not outperform the markets. They already have recovered about 15 per cent from their lows, says market expert Pranav Sanghavi.
The Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (Irdai) has asked at least 10 general and life insurance companies to submit a detailed road map for their listing strategies by the end of this month, according to multiple sources with direct knowledge of the matter. "The regulator met four life and six general insurers last month and asked them to provide their listing strategies by the end of February," said one of the sources.
The Auto segment is facing a higher interest rate scenario currently but eventually when the interest rates do come down a bit the auto segment should outperform as there is good potential for growth in the sector, says market expert Pranav Sanghavi.
We have millions of newbie investors who are clueless about how to handle sudden and severe adverse market reactions, which arrive from time to time, observes Debashis Basu.
Hold on to major infrastructure stocks for some time, advises market expert Pranav Sanghavi. With the growth in the infrastructure development in our country they should benefit to an extent from the construction boom.
Quarterly earnings from corporates, global trends, and trading activity of foreign investors will guide market sentiment this week, analysts said, adding that benchmark indices may face volatile trends. "The upcoming release of Q2 results will be closely watched, providing insights into corporate performance. "Meanwhile, the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran introduce a significant geopolitical risk, potentially leading to increased oil prices and market volatility.
Since October, FPIs have offloaded Indian equities worth Rs 2.1 trillion.
The risk-reward for the Indian markets, Morgan Stanley said, is turning favourable.
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